Alterations in Hydrological Responses under Changing Climate and Land Use/Land Cover across Contrasting Agroecological Environments: A Case Study on the Chemoga Watershed in the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

Taye Minichil Meshesha; Atsushi Tsunekawa; Nigussie Haregeweyn; Mitsuru Tsubo; Ayele Almaw Fenta; Mulatu Liyew Berihun; Arega Mulu; Ashebir Sewale Belay; Dagnenet Sultan; Kindiye Ebabu; Tadesual Asamin Setargie; Samuel Berihun Kassa; Yoseph Buta Hailu; Takeshi Abe

doi:10.3390/w16071037

Water (Apr 2024)

Alterations in Hydrological Responses under Changing Climate and Land Use/Land Cover across Contrasting Agroecological Environments: A Case Study on the Chemoga Watershed in the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

Taye Minichil Meshesha,
Atsushi Tsunekawa,
Nigussie Haregeweyn,
Mitsuru Tsubo,
Ayele Almaw Fenta,
Mulatu Liyew Berihun,
Arega Mulu,
Ashebir Sewale Belay,
Dagnenet Sultan,
Kindiye Ebabu,
Tadesual Asamin Setargie,
Samuel Berihun Kassa,
Yoseph Buta Hailu,
Takeshi Abe

Affiliations

Taye Minichil Meshesha: The United Graduate School of Agricultural Sciences, Tottori University, 4-101 Koyama-Minami, Tottori 680-8553, Japan
Atsushi Tsunekawa: Arid Land Research Center, Tottori University, 1390 Hamasaka, Tottori 680-0001, Japan
Nigussie Haregeweyn: International Platform for Dryland Research and Education, Tottori University, 1390 Hamasaka, Tottori 680-0001, Japan
Mitsuru Tsubo: Arid Land Research Center, Tottori University, 1390 Hamasaka, Tottori 680-0001, Japan
Ayele Almaw Fenta: International Platform for Dryland Research and Education, Tottori University, 1390 Hamasaka, Tottori 680-0001, Japan
Mulatu Liyew Berihun: Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, Tropical Research and Education Center, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, University of Florida, Homestead, FL 33031, USA
Arega Mulu: School of Civil and Water Resource Engineering, Debre Markos Institute of Technology, Debre Markos University, Debre Markos P.O. Box 269, Ethiopia
Ashebir Sewale Belay: School of Earth Sciences, Bahir Dar University, Bahir Dar P.O. Box 79, Ethiopia
Dagnenet Sultan: Arid Land Research Center, Tottori University, 1390 Hamasaka, Tottori 680-0001, Japan
Kindiye Ebabu: College of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences, Bahir Dar University, Bahir Dar P.O. Box 5501, Ethiopia
Tadesual Asamin Setargie: Faculty of Civil and Water Resources Engineering, Bahir Dar Institute of Technology, Bahir Dar University, Bahir Dar P.O. Box 26, Ethiopia
Samuel Berihun Kassa: The United Graduate School of Agricultural Sciences, Tottori University, 4-101 Koyama-Minami, Tottori 680-8553, Japan
Yoseph Buta Hailu: The United Graduate School of Agricultural Sciences, Tottori University, 4-101 Koyama-Minami, Tottori 680-8553, Japan
Takeshi Abe: International Platform for Dryland Research and Education, Tottori University, 1390 Hamasaka, Tottori 680-0001, Japan

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/w16071037
Journal volume & issue: Vol. 16, no. 7
p. 1037

Abstract

Read online

We analyzed hydrological responses to changing climate and land use/land cover (LULC) for the past (1985–2020) and future (2021–2080) in the Chemoga watershed of the Upper Blue Nile Basin. The watershed comprises four agroecological environments: Moist Kolla, Moist Weyna Dega, Moist Dega, and Wet Wurch. Past and projected LULC changes under business-as-usual (BAU) and land conservation (LC) scenarios were utilized. Climate projections from 2021 to 2080, under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5), were downscaled from Global Climate Models. Utilizing the Soil and Water Analysis Tool, we assessed impacts on mean annual surface runoff (SR) and evapotranspiration (ET). Maximum and minimum temperatures increased significantly in the past and future climate scenarios, with a significant rainfall increase observed under SSP5-8.5. Historical trends revealed a 16.6% increase in SR and 7% in ET from 1983–2002 to 2003–2020. Under BAU LULC with the SSP2-4.5 (SSP5-8.5) climate scenario, SR increased by 24% (26.1%) and ET by 3.1% (4.4%) from 2003–2020 to 2021–2050, followed by a subsequent SR rise of 13.7% (14.0%) and ET increase of 6.0% (5.7%) from 2021–2050 to 2051–2080. Conversely, the LC LULC with SSP2-4.5 (SSP5-8.5) resulted in a 5.3% (4.2%) SR decrease and ET increase of 9.7% (11.3%) from 2003–2020 to 2021–2050 and a further SR decrease of 1% (0.7%) and 6.1% (6.9%) ET increase from 2021–2050 to 2051–2080. The Moist Kolla agroecology experienced the highest SR increase due to vegetation clearances for commercial farming. Meanwhile, the LC scenario indicated substantial decreases in SR and marginal increases in ET in the Moist Weyna Dega agroecology due to forest restoration on steep slopes. Overall, SR showed greater sensitivity to LULC changes, while ET was more responsive to climate changes. The results emphasize considering diverse agroecological contexts for effective water resource management under changing climate and LULC scenarios.

Published in Water

ISSN: 2073-4441 (Online)
Publisher: MDPI AG
Country of publisher: Switzerland
LCC subjects: Technology: Hydraulic engineering; Technology: Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering: Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes
Website: http://www.mdpi.com/journal/water/

About the journal

Abstract

Keywords