Scores predicting atrial fibrillation after mitral valve surgery: Do we need a more specific score?

Abstract

Abstract Background Atrial fibrillation after cardiac surgery (POAF) is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Several scores were used to predict POAF, with variable results. Thus, this study assessed the performance of several scoring systems to predict POAF after mitral valve surgery. Additionally, we identified the risk factors for POAF in those patients. Methods This retrospective cohort included 1381 recruited from 2009 to 2021. The patients underwent mitral valve surgery, and POAF occurred in 233 (16.87%) patients. The performance of CHADS2, CHA2DS2‐VASc, POAF, EuroSCORE II, and HATCH scores was evaluated. Results The median age was higher in patients who developed POAF (60 vs. 54 years; p 58 years, body mass index > 28 kg/m2, creatinine clearance 2 significantly predicted POAF (p < .001). The AUCROC of this score was 0.67, which was significantly higher than the AUCROC of the POAF score (p = .009). Conclusion POAF after mitral valve surgery can be predicted based on preoperative patient characteristics. The new PSCC‐AF score significantly predicted POAF after mitral valve surgery and can serve as a bedside diagnostic tool for POAF risk screening. Further studies are needed to validate the PSCC‐AF‐mitral score externally.

Keywords

• atrial fibrillation
• cardiac surgery
• mitral valve surgery
• risk‐scoring systems