Vehicle Lane Change Multistep Trajectory Prediction Based on Data and CNN_BiLSTM Model

Abstract

In order to accurately predict the lane-changing trajectory of the vehicle and improve the driving safety of the vehicle, a lane-changing trajectory prediction model based on the combination of convolutional neural network (CNN) and bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) neural network is proposed by comprehensively considering the historical driving behavior, the spatial characteristics of surrounding vehicles and the bidirectional time sequence information of the vehicle trajectory. Firstly, the vehicle trajectory data are filtered and smoothed, and it is divided into three categories: left lane change, right lane change, and straight driving, and a lane change trajectory sample set is constructed. Secondly, CNN-BiLSTM model is constructed to identify the sample set of lane-changing trajectory. Considering the interaction between vehicles in the driving process, the information of predicted vehicle, and surrounding vehicles is taken as the input of the model. The extracted feature vector is input to the BiLSTM layer for prediction after the CNN layer feature extraction, and the horizontal and vertical coordinates of the target vehicle at the next time are output. Thirdly, the trajectory data of the US-101 dataset in NGSIM is selected to verify the performance of the CNN-BiLSTM model, and at the same time, it is compared with models such as CNN-LSTM, long short-term memory (LSTM), BiLSTM, and CNN-GRU-Att. Finally, the verification result shows that the overall fitting degree of the vehicle lane change trajectory prediction of the proposed model reaches 99.50%, and the mean square error and mean absolute error are 0.0003076 and 0.01417, which are improved compared with other models. In the meanwhile, the research on multistep trajectory prediction in different prediction time domains is carried out. It was found that the longer the prediction time domain is, the lower the prediction performance of the model decreases, but the prediction accuracy still reached more than 96%, and it was able to accurately predict the lane change trajectory.