Enjoying the Fruits of Their Labor: Redirecting Exports to Asian Consumers

Abstract

There has been an explosion in the amount of parts and components traded within East Asian production networks. The People's Republic of China (PRC) has emerged as the final assembly point for the goods produced. These goods then flow primarily outside of the region. When the global financial crisis (GFC) occurred, the decrease in Western demand led to a synchronized decline in Asian exports. If more final goods could flow to Asian consumers, it would provide insurance against another slowdown in the rest of the world. This paper uses a gravity model to investigate if emerging Asia is importing fewer consumption goods than predicted. The results indicate that since the GFC, the PRC and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have imported more final goods than expected. Nevertheless, their consumption imports per capita are orders of magnitude lower than those of developed economies. This highlights the need for further growth in emerging Asia.

Keywords

• consumption
• gravity models
• production networks