Online Learning-Based Surrogate Modeling of Stratospheric Airship Solar Array Output Power

Abstract

The stratospheric airship is a type of aerostat that uses solar energy as its power source and can fly continuously for months or even years in near space. The rapid and accurate prediction of the output power of its solar array is the key to maintaining energy balance and extending flight time. This paper establishes an online learning model for predicting the output power of the solar array of stratospheric airships. The readings of radiometers arranged on the surface of the airship are used as features for training the model. The parameters of the model can be updated in real-time during the flight process without retraining the entire model. The effect of radiometer placement on the model accuracy was also analyzed. The results show that for the continuous flight of 40 days, the online learning model can achieve an accuracy of 88% after training with 10 days of flight data and the accuracy basically reaches its highest level after 20 days. In addition, placing the radiometers at the four corners of the array can achieve a higher prediction accuracy of 95%. The online model can also accurately identify and reflect the effect of module efficiency attenuation or damage and maintain high accuracy.

Keywords

• stratospheric airship
• solar array
• output power
• surrogate model
• online learning