Earthquake Science (Aug 2024)
The forecasting efficiency under different selected regions by Pattern Informatics Method and seismic potential estimation in the North-South Seismic Zone[Key points]
Abstract
In 2022, four earthquakes with MS≥6.0 including the Menyuan MS6.9 and Luding MS6.8 earthquakes occurred in the North-South Seismic Zone (NSSZ), which demonstrated high and strong seismicity. Pattern Informatics (PI) method, as an effective long and medium term earthquake forecasting method, has been applied to the strong earthquake forecasting in Chinese mainland and results have shown the positive performance. The earthquake catalog with magnitude above MS3.0 since 1970 provided by China Earthquake Networks Center was employed in this study and the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) method was applied to test the forecasting efficiency of the PI method in each selected region related to the North-South Seismic Zone systematically. Based on this, we selected the area with the best ROC testing result and analyzed the evolution process of the PI hotspot map reflecting the small seismic activity pattern prior to the Menyuan MS6.9 and Luding MS6.8 earthquakes. A “forward” forecast for the area was carried out to assess seismic risk. The study shows the following. 1) PI forecasting has higher forecasting efficiency in the selected study region where the difference of seismicity in any place of the region is smaller. 2) In areas with smaller differences of seismicity, the activity pattern of small earthquakes prior to the Menyuan MS6.9 and Luding MS6.8 earthquakes can be obtained by analyzing the spatio-temporal evolution process of the PI hotspot map. 3) The hotspot evolution in and around the southern Tazang fault in the study area is similar to that prior to the strong earthquakes, which suggests the possible seismic hazard in the future. This study could provide some ideas to the seismic hazard assessment in other regions with high seismicity, such as Japan, California, Turkey, and Indonesia.
