Parasites & Vectors (Dec 2015)

Quantitative analyses and modelling to support achievement of the 2020 goals for nine neglected tropical diseases

  • T. Déirdre Hollingsworth,
  • Emily R. Adams,
  • Roy M. Anderson,
  • Katherine Atkins,
  • Sarah Bartsch,
  • María-Gloria Basáñez,
  • Matthew Behrend,
  • David J. Blok,
  • Lloyd A. C. Chapman,
  • Luc Coffeng,
  • Orin Courtenay,
  • Ron E. Crump,
  • Sake J. de Vlas,
  • Andy Dobson,
  • Louise Dyson,
  • Hajnal Farkas,
  • Alison P. Galvani,
  • Manoj Gambhir,
  • David Gurarie,
  • Michael A. Irvine,
  • Sarah Jervis,
  • Matt J. Keeling,
  • Louise Kelly-Hope,
  • Charles King,
  • Bruce Y. Lee,
  • Epke A. Le Rutte,
  • Thomas M. Lietman,
  • Martial Ndeffo-Mbah,
  • Graham F. Medley,
  • Edwin Michael,
  • Abhishek Pandey,
  • Jennifer K. Peterson,
  • Amy Pinsent,
  • Travis C. Porco,
  • Jan Hendrik Richardus,
  • Lisa Reimer,
  • Kat S. Rock,
  • Brajendra K. Singh,
  • Wilma Stolk,
  • Subramanian Swaminathan,
  • Steve J. Torr,
  • Jeffrey Townsend,
  • James Truscott,
  • Martin Walker,
  • Alexandra Zoueva,
  • NTD Modelling Consortium

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1186/s13071-015-1235-1
Journal volume & issue
Vol. 8, no. 1
pp. 1 – 28

Abstract

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Abstract Quantitative analysis and mathematical models are useful tools in informing strategies to control or eliminate disease. Currently, there is an urgent need to develop these tools to inform policy to achieve the 2020 goals for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). In this paper we give an overview of a collection of novel model-based analyses which aim to address key questions on the dynamics of transmission and control of nine NTDs: Chagas disease, visceral leishmaniasis, human African trypanosomiasis, leprosy, soil-transmitted helminths, schistosomiasis, lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis and trachoma. Several common themes resonate throughout these analyses, including: the importance of epidemiological setting on the success of interventions; targeting groups who are at highest risk of infection or re-infection; and reaching populations who are not accessing interventions and may act as a reservoir for infection,. The results also highlight the challenge of maintaining elimination ‘as a public health problem’ when true elimination is not reached. The models elucidate the factors that may be contributing most to persistence of disease and discuss the requirements for eventually achieving true elimination, if that is possible. Overall this collection presents new analyses to inform current control initiatives. These papers form a base from which further development of the models and more rigorous validation against a variety of datasets can help to give more detailed advice. At the moment, the models’ predictions are being considered as the world prepares for a final push towards control or elimination of neglected tropical diseases by 2020.

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