Towards the Development of the National Ocean Service San Francisco Bay Operational Forecast System

Abstract

The National Ocean Service (NOS), Center for Operational Products and Services installed a Physical Oceanographic Real Time System (PORTS) in San Francisco Bay during 1998 to provide water surface elevation, currents at PORTS prediction depth as well as near-surface temperature and salinity. To complement the PORTS, a new nowcast/forecast system (consistent with NOS procedures) has been constructed. This new nowcast/forecast system is based on the Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model (FVCOM) using a computational domain, which extends from Rio Vista on the Sacramento River and Antioch on the San Joaquin River through Suisun and San Pablo Bays and Upper and Lower San Francisco Bay out onto the continental shelf. This paper presents the FVCOM setup, testing, and validation for tidal and hindcast scenarios. In addition, the San Francisco Bay Operational Forecast System (SFBOFS) setup within the NOS Coastal Ocean Model Framework (COMF) is discussed. The SFBOFS performance during a semi-operational nowcast/forecast test period is presented and the production webpage is also briefly introduced. FVCOM, the core of SFBOFS, has been found to run robustly during the test period. Amplitudes and epochs of the M2 S2, N2, K2, K1, O1, P1, and Q1 constituents from the model tide-only simulation scenario are very close to the observed values at all stations. NOS skill assessment and RMS errors of all variables indicate that most statistical parameters pass the assessment criteria, and the model predictions are in agreement with measurements for both hindcast and semi-operational nowcast/forecast scenarios.

Keywords

• San Francisco Bay
• nowcast/forecast systems
• FVCOM