Remote Sensing and Multi-Criteria Evaluation for Malaria Risk Mapping to Support Indoor Residual Spraying Prioritization in the Central Highlands of Madagascar

Abstract

The National Malaria Control Program (NMCP) in Madagascar classifies Malagasy districts into two malaria situations: districts in the pre-elimination phase and districts in the control phase. Indoor residual spraying (IRS) is identified as the main intervention means to control malaria in the Central Highlands. However, it involves an important logistical mobilization and thus necessitates prioritization of interventions according to the magnitude of malaria risks. Our objectives were to map the malaria transmission risk and to develop a tool to support the Malagasy Ministry of Public Health (MoH) for selective IRS implementation. For the 2014–2016 period, different sources of remotely sensed data were used to update land cover information and substitute in situ climatic data. Spatial modeling was performed based on multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) to assess malaria risk. Models were mainly based on environment and climate. Three annual malaria risk maps were obtained for 2014, 2015, and 2016. Annual parasite incidence data were used to validate the results. In 2016, the validation of the model using a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve showed an accuracy of 0.736; 95% CI [0.669–0.803]. A free plugin for QGIS software was made available for NMCP decision makers to prioritize areas for IRS. An annual update of the model provides the basic information for decision making before each IRS campaign. In Madagascar and beyond, the availability of the free plugin for open-source software facilitates the transfer to the MoH and allows further application to other problems and contexts.

Keywords

• remote sensing
• spatial modeling
• multi-criteria evaluation
• malaria
• Madagascar