Grey comprehensive evaluation of development performance of provinces in China based on spatiotemporal probability function and variable weight strategy

Abstract

In the new stage of promoting high-quality economic development, the effect of the transformation of development momentum and the ability of sustainable development has become the key factors for the competitiveness of provinces in China. Especially in the context of the impact of COVID-19 and the obstacles of world trade protectionism, the sustainability of development performance is increasingly important. In the past, when evaluating the development performance of various provinces in China, a single index weight was usually used. In view of evaluation criteria, the lack of consideration of regional differentiation factors would result in the evaluation results deviating from reality. This paper introduces the entropy weight method to determine the weight of regional indicators of differentiated development. Based on the space-time probability function, a grey clustering evaluation model of regional development performance is constructed to conduct a comprehensive grey evaluation of the development performance of various provinces in China from 2009 to 2019. It is found that the new evaluation model can correct the deficiencies of similar probability functions and single index weight and obtain more accurate evaluation results. It’s found that the development performance evaluation results of each province are always in a dynamic adjustment process, which needs to be verified with the help of subsequent expansion analysis.