Spatio-seasonal modeling of the incidence rate of malaria in Mozambique

Abstract

Abstract Background The objective was to study the seasonal effect on the spatial distribution of the incidence of malaria in children under 10 years old living in the Manhiça district, Mozambique. Methods The data of the clinical malaria incidence were obtained from a study of two cohorts of children followed from December 1996 to July 1999. The cases were obtained by the active detection method. Hierarchical Bayesian models were used to model the incidence of malaria, including spatial correlation nested to climatic season. The models were compared with the deviance information criterion. The age and gender of the children were also taken into account. Results The incidence of malaria is associated with age, period and climate season. The incidence presents a clear spatial pattern, with a higher incidence in the neighbourhoods situated in the north and northeast of the Manhiça area. The transmission of malaria is highest during the wet season but the spatial pattern of malaria does not differ from that during the dry season. Conclusion The incidence of malaria in Manhiça presents a spatial pattern which is independent of the seasonal climatic conditions. The climate modifies the incidence of malaria in the entire region but does not change the spatial pattern of the incidence of this disease. These findings may be useful for the planning of malaria control activities. These activities can be performed taking account that the neighbourhoods with more incidence of malaria do not change over the annual climate seasons.