Projection of the Potential Global Geographic Distribution of the Solanum Fruit Fly <i>Bactrocera latifrons</i> (Hendel, 1912) (Diptera: Tephritidae) Based on CLIMEX Models
Yajie Wei,
Xiaoqing Xian,
Haoxiang Zhao,
Jianyang Guo,
Nianwan Yang,
Zhi Gong,
Wanxue Liu,
Zhengqiang Peng
Affiliations
Yajie Wei
College of Plant Science & Technology, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China
Xiaoqing Xian
State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Beijing 100193, China
Haoxiang Zhao
State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Beijing 100193, China
Jianyang Guo
State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Beijing 100193, China
Nianwan Yang
State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Beijing 100193, China
Zhi Gong
Key Laboratory of Integrated Pest Management on Tropical Crops, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, China, Environment and Plant Protection Instiute, Chinese Academy of Tropical Agricultural Sciences, Haikou 571101, China
Wanxue Liu
State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Beijing 100193, China
Zhengqiang Peng
College of Plant Science & Technology, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China
The solanum fruit fly Bactrocera latifrons (Diptera: Tephritidae) is an invasive alien insect that causes huge economic losses to pepper and other solanaceous plant industries. It is mainly distributed in South and Southeast Asia, SW Europe, Western USA, and in some African countries. However, the potential global geographical distribution of B. latifrons is unknown. Therefore, in this study, based on the current (1981–2010) and future (2040–2059) climatic scenarios determined using the CNRM-CM5, Access1.0, GFDL-ESM-2M, and NorESM1-M models, we used a species distribution model (CLIMEX 4.0) to project the potential global geographic distribution of B. latifrons to prevent further invasion and harm. In the current climate scenario, South America (1286.06 × 104 km2), Africa (1435.47 × 104 km2), and Oceania (410.66 × 104 km2) have the largest proportions of suitable land areas for B. latifrons colonization. Under all four future climate models, the global potential suitable area for Bactrocera latifrons is projected to decrease and shift towards higher latitudes. This study provides an important baseline upon which researchers, quarantine personnel, and governments can develop the appropriate control strategies against B. latifrons.
