Predicting severity of acute appendicitis with machine learning methods: a simple and promising approach for clinicians

Abstract

Abstract Backgrounds Acute Appendicitis (AA) is one of the most common surgical emergencies worldwide. This study aims to investigate the predictive performances of 6 different Machine Learning (ML) algorithms for simple and complicated AA. Methods Data regarding operated AA patients between 2012 and 2022 were analyzed retrospectively. Based on operative findings, patients were evaluated under two groups: perforated AA and none-perforated AA. The features that showed statistical significance (p < 0.05) in both univariate and multivariate analysis were included in the prediction models as input features. Five different error metrics and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) were used for model comparison. Results A total number of 1132 patients were included in the study. Patients were divided into training (932 samples), testing (100 samples), and validation (100 samples) sets. Age, gender, neutrophil count, lymphocyte count, Neutrophil to Lymphocyte ratio, total bilirubin, C-Reactive Protein (CRP), Appendix Diameter, and PeriAppendicular Liquid Collection (PALC) were significantly different between the two groups. In the multivariate analysis, age, CRP, and PALC continued to show a significant difference in the perforated AA group. According to univariate and multivariate analysis, two data sets were used in the prediction model. K-Nearest Neighbors and Logistic Regression algorithms achieved the best prediction performance in the validation group with an accuracy of 96%. Conclusion The results showed that using only three input features (age, CRP, and PALC), the severity of AA can be predicted with high accuracy. The developed prediction model can be useful in clinical practice.

Keywords

• Appendicitis
• Machine learning
• Prediction
• Severity