Analysis of disruptions cascade effect within and between urban sociotechnical systems in a context of risks

Abstract

The vulnerability of critical infrastructures facing hazards is a burning issue for urban risks management. In this context, developing methodologies for analysing the causes and consequences of critical infrastructures vulnerability appears necessary for improving the proper functioning of cities that strongly depend on such infrastructures. The critical infrastructures are complex socio-technical systems in which the components are particularly interdependent. Interdependencies also exist between critical infrastructures. All these interactions may imply many failures caused by cascade effect in a context of risks. After a review of existing methodologies for assessing the interdependencies within and between critical infrastructures, the paper develops a global methodology based on dependability methods in order to automatically produce the scenarios of failures caused by cascade effect within a rail transport system, as an example of critical infrastructures, facing a flood hazard, as an example of urban risks. The paper discusses the generalizability of the methodology to other critical infrastructures.