Ceboruco hazard map: part I - definition of hazard scenarios based on the eruptive history

Abstract

Abstract Of the 48 volcanoes in Mexico listed as potentially active by the National Center for Disaster Prevention (CENAPRED), Ceboruco, located in the western Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, is considered among the 5 most hazardous. Its recent eruptive history includes a large magnitude Plinian (VEI 6) eruption ~ 1000 years ago and the historical 1870–1875 vulcanian (VEI 3) eruption, as well as recent fumarolic and seismic activity. Ceboruco is a relatively young (< 400,000 years) stratovolcano characterized by abrupt changes in eruptive behavior. Individual eruptive episodes have great variations in style (effusive andesitic to highly-explosive rhyodacitic) and duration. These factors complicate hazard assessment. Three main eruptive scenarios of different magnitudes (large, intermediate, small) and eruption characteristics (likelihood of occurrence: high, medium, small) have been identified and will be presented as a background to build the volcanic hazard map for Ceboruco volcano (presented in part II of this work). Here, we report on the detailed eruptive history, with emphasis on the volcanic products of each of the eruptions, in order to identify those deposits that can serve as a reference for calibrating the modeling software (Tephra2 and Hazmap for ash fallout, Eject! code for ballistics, Etna Lava Flow Model for lava flows, Titan2D for pyroclastic density currents, and Flo-2D and LaharZ for lahars) that will be used in further steps to simulate different volcanic phenomena and lead to the construction of the hazard map.

Keywords

• Ceboruco volcano
• Hazard scenarios
• Lava flows
• Ash fallout
• Ballistics
• Pyroclastic flows and –surges