Importance of the Long-Term Seasonal Component in Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting Revisited: Parameter-Rich Models Estimated via the LASSO

Abstract

Recent studies suggest that decomposing a series of electricity spot prices into a trend-seasonal and a stochastic component, modeling them independently, and then combining their forecasts can yield more accurate predictions than an approach in which the same parsimonious regression or neural network-based model is calibrated to the prices themselves. Here, we show that significant accuracy gains can also be achieved in the case of parameter-rich models estimated via the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO). Moreover, we provide insights as to the order of applying seasonal decomposition and variance stabilizing transformations before model calibration, and propose two well-performing forecast averaging schemes that are based on different approaches for modeling the long-term seasonal component.

Keywords

• electricity price forecasting
• day-ahead market
• LASSO
• long-term seasonal component
• variance stabilizing transformation
• forecast averaging