Urban Development of Bayn Al-Haramayn Zone Based on 25-Year Estimation of Al-Arbaeen Crowd Density

Abstract

Karbala city is known to host one of the largest annual human gatherings in the world, where a diverse group of visitors congregates in the Karbala old city to participate in the Al-Arbaeen rites. This significant event peaked on Safar 19th, resulting in mobility issues, particularly in the Bayn Al-Haramayn zone. To address this concern, this study proposes a plan that estimates the number of visitors over the next 25 years and presents a solution for the vertical expansion of the zone while maintaining its urban fabric. The proposal includes estimating the areas required to accommodate the visitors based on an average crowd density of 3.5 individuals per square meter. The authors predict that the number of pilgrims will continue to increase over the next 25 years, and by 2046, an area of 148 square kilometers will be necessary to accommodate them. Expanding the Bayn Al-Haramayn zone is crucial as it is a vital destination for many visitors, and its spiritual significance adds value to the experience of performing the Ziyarat-Alarbaeen rituals. The proposed solution focuses on vertical expansion, providing a total area of 10, 116 m2 and can accommodate up to 35, 500 capita. Moreover, the proposed solution also integrates mobility paths that align with the urban scene of the area.

Keywords

• urban planning
• statistical forecasting
• crowd density
• ziyarat-alarbaeen
• karbala