Ethereum 2.0 Hard Fork: Consensus Change and Market Efficiency

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of consensus mechanism changes on cryptocurrency markets within the framework of the efficient market hypothesis, focusing on Ethereum’s transition from Proof-of-Work to Proof-of-Stake consensus, known as the Ethereum 2.0 ‘The Merge’ update. Two main hypotheses guide the enquiry: (i) ‘The Merge’ update will significantly enhance market efficiency and (ii) Ethereum’s updates will have a greater impact on market efficiency compared to other cryptocurrencies. Using the Hurst exponent’s R/S statistic, changes in Ethereum’s long-term memory characteristics before and after major hard forks are quantified. The analysis reveals substantial improvements in Ethereum’s market efficiency following the Ethereum 2.0 hard fork, attributed to the introduction of Proof-of-Stake, which enhanced transaction speed and built trust. These findings suggest a positive trajectory towards improved efficiency in Ethereum’s market, particularly with ‘The Merge’ update. In conclusion, this study contributes to understanding the role of consensus mechanisms in cryptocurrencies and provides insights into future market trends resulting from such changes.