The Impacts of Conditional Cash Transfers in Four Presidential Elections (2002–2014)
Brazilian Political Science Review. 2015;9(1):135-149
Journal Title: Brazilian Political Science Review
ISSN: 1981-3821 (Online)
Publisher: Brazilian Political Science Association
Society/Institution: Brazilian Political Science Association
LCC Subject Category: Political science: Political science (General)
Country of publisher: Brazil
Language of fulltext: English
Full-text formats available: PDF, XML
Cesar Zucco Jr.
(Fundação Getúlio Vargas – Rio de Janeiro, Brazil)
Abstract | Full Text
This research note examines the electoral impacts of Conditional Cash Transfer programs in the 2014 presidential election, and compares these to results previously obtained for the preceding three elections (ZUCCO, 2013). It analyzes both individual-level survey data and municipal-level electoral data and applies different matching techniques to attempt to ensure that only similar individuals and municipalities are compared to each other. The note shows that although the strictly defined "electoral effect" of Bolsa Família at the municipality level has remained quite similar to what was found in the past elections, there seems to have been a sharp increase in the aggregate effects, observed at the municipality level. I conjecture that the increased polarization among non-beneficiaries is the possible "cause" of the changes observed in the last election and suggest that examining the indirect electoral effect of Bolsa Família over non-beneficiaries is a promising avenue for future research.