Response of Future Summer Marine Heatwaves in the South China Sea to Enhanced Western Pacific Subtropical High

Abstract

Abstract Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are prevalent in the South China Sea (SCS) and are primarily caused by the anomalous western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) which suppresses the SCS summer monsoon. Our study investigates future summer MHWs in the SCS in response to the enhanced WPSH. The results show that the WPSH will be strengthened in most models under the highest emission scenario. Total days of summer SCS MHWs will significantly increase with the enhancement of the WPSH and peak at the end of the 21st century. The high‐value area of total days of summer MHWs (>50 days) appears in the south‐central SCS. The intensity of MHWs exhibits little response to the strengthening WPSH. In addition, the weakening of the SCS cold filament due to the anomalous WPSH also favors summer MHWs. Furthermore, increased future severe summer SCS MHWs will create a higher bleaching risk for coral reefs.

Keywords

• marine heatwaves
• western Pacific subtropical high
• South China Sea
• future projections