Land subsidence susceptibility mapping based on InSAR and a hybrid machine learning approach

Abstract

Land subsidence (LS) due to natural processes or human activity can irreparably damage the environment. This study employed the quasi-permanent scatterer method to detect areas with and without subsidence in the period from 2018 to 2020. In addition, 12 factors affecting subsidence were selected to detect LS-prone areas. Information gain ratio (IGR) and frequency ratio methods were used to determine the importance and weighting of various factors and sub-factors affecting subsidence. Novel approaches, including the standard adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) algorithm and its integration with the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm, yielded LS maps. The models’ predictive performance was assessed using statistical indexes such as the root mean square error (RMSE), area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and confusion matrix criteria (e.g., sensitivity, specificity, precision, accuracy, and recall). Finally, Shapley additive explanations approach was used to explore the importance of features in modeling. The findings showed that the subsidence pattern was V-shaped, averaging 321 mm/year. Ground-leveling and interferometric synthetic aperture radar measurements revealed a 0.93 correlation coefficient with a σ = 1.43 mm/year deformation rate. Based on IGR analysis, aquifer media, the decline of the water table, and aquifer thickness played pivotal roles in LS occurrences. In addition, the ANFIS-PSO model classified approximately 50.26 % of the study area as high and very high susceptibility. The AUROC values of ANFIS-PSO and ANFIS models for the training dataset were 0.912 and 0.807, respectively. For the testing dataset, the ANFIS-PSO model produced a higher AUROC value of 0.863, while the ANFIS model had a value of 0.771. In addition, the RMSE values for the ANFIS-PSO model were lower. Given its remarkable accuracy, the ANFIS-PSO model was deemed suitable for evaluating subsidence susceptibility in the study area.

Keywords

• Quasi-permanent scatterer
• Land subsidence
• Adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system
• Tehran-Karaj-Shahriyar aquifer
• Particle swarm optimization
• Remote sensing