The Impact of Climate Change on Temperature and Precipitation in Afghanistan with Emphasis on the Helmand and Hariroud Basins

Abstract

One of the most challenging issues in water resource management is the impact of climate change on the water supply. It is necessary to examine the effects of climate change on Afghanistan, which is vital to Iran's water resources. To investigate the temperature and precipitation and their variability in Afghanistan and the two basins of Helmand and Hariroud, MSWX data was used from 1981 to 2020. To project the future climate, the output of five CMIP6 models was used for the near future (2026-2050). To reduce the uncertainty of individual models, a multi-model ensemble was generated. The area-averaged precipitation trend showed that the precipitation in Afghanistan, Helmand, and Hariroud basins has decreased by 11.2, 12.2, and 12.3 mm/decade, respectively. The area-averaged temperature has increased by 0.43, 0.45, and 0.57 oC/decade over Afghanistan, Helmand, and Hariroud basins, respectively. The results showed that the temperature in all three investigated regions will have a positive anomaly in the near future under SP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. On the other hand, the precipitation anomaly will be negative under SSP2-4.5 in the northern regions of Afghanistan and the two studied basins. The entire area of Afghanistan and two basins will experience a negative anomaly of precipitation under SSP5-8.5.

Keywords

• cmip6-mme
• precipitation changes
• multi-model ensemble
• afghanistan