Establishment and validation of prognostic nomogram in acute leukemia with trisomy 8

Abstract

ABSTRACTObjective This study aims to construct a nomogram model for predicting poor prognosis in acute leukemia with trisomy 8.Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on 244 patients with primary acute leukemia with trisomy 8 who received treatment in our hospital, and they were randomly divided into the modeling group (122 cases, including 78 cases with good prognosis and 44 cases with poor prognosis) and the verification group (122 cases). R software was used to construct a nomogram model for predicting poor prognosis in acute leukemia with trisomy 8.Results The results of multivariate analysis showed that age >51 years old, and white blood cell count ≤20 × 109/L were risk factors for poor prognosis in acute leukemia patients with trisomy 8 (P < 0.05), and chemotherapy + transplantation was a protective factor for poor prognosis in acute leukemia patients with trisomy 8 (P < 0.05). The nomogram for poor prognosis of acute leukemia patients with trisomy 8 was constructed using the above four risk predictors. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test was = 6.371, P = 0.497, and the area under the ROC curve was 0.817 (95%CI: 0.742-0.892). The slope of the calibration curve of external validation was close to 1, Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test was [Formula: see text] = 6.507, P = 0.448, and the area under the ROC curve was 0.834 (95%CI: 0.748-0.921).Conclusion The nomogram model constructed in this study for predicting poor prognosis among acute leukemia patients with trisomy 8 demonstrates excellent discrimination and consistency.

Keywords

• Trisomy 8
• acute leukemia
• prognosis
• nomogram
• validation
• aged