Frontiers in Climate (Jun 2022)

Targeted Green Recovery Measures in a Post-COVID-19 World Enable the Energy Transition

  • Ioannis Dafnomilis,
  • Hsing-Hsuan Chen,
  • Michel den Elzen,
  • Michel den Elzen,
  • Panagiotis Fragkos,
  • Unnada Chewpreecha,
  • Heleen van Soest,
  • Heleen van Soest,
  • Kostas Fragkiadakis,
  • Panagiotis Karkatsoulis,
  • Leonidas Paroussos,
  • Harmen-Sytze de Boer,
  • Vassilis Daioglou,
  • Oreane Edelenbosch,
  • Bence Kiss-Dobronyi,
  • Detlef P. van Vuuren,
  • Detlef P. van Vuuren

DOI
https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2022.840933
Journal volume & issue
Vol. 4

Abstract

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Despite the significant volume of fiscal recovery measures announced by countries to deal with the COVID-19 crisis, most recovery plans allocate a low percentage to green recovery. We present scenarios exploring the medium- and long-term impact of the COVID-19 crisis and develop a Green Recovery scenario using three well-established global models to analyze the impact of a low-carbon focused stimulus. The results show that a Green Recovery scenario, with 1% of global GDP in fiscal support directed to mitigation measures for 3 years, could reduce global CO2 emissions by 10.5–15.5% below pre-COVID-19 projections by 2030, closing 8–11.5% of the emissions gap with cost-optimal 2°C pathways. The share of renewables in global electricity generation is projected to reach 45% in 2030, the uptake of electric vehicles would be accelerated, and energy efficiency in the buildings and industry sector would improve. However, such a temporary investment should be reinforced with sustained climate policies after 2023 to put the world on a 2°C pathway by mid-century.

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