Reliability Estimation of Reciprocating Seals Based on Multivariate Dependence Analysis and Its Experimental Validation

Abstract

Accurate reliability estimation for reciprocating seals is of great significance due to their wide use in numerous engineering applications. This work proposes a reliability estimation method for reciprocating seals based on multivariate dependence analysis of different performance indicators. Degradation behavior corresponding to each performance indicator is first described by the Wiener process. Dependence among different performance indicators is then captured using D-vine copula, and a weight-based copula selection method is utilized to determine the optimal bivariate copula for each dependence relationship. A two-stage Bayesian method is used to estimate the parameters in the proposed model. Finally, a reciprocating seal degradation test is conducted, and the proposed reliability estimation approach is validated by test data. Results show that the proposed model is accurate and effective in estimating the reliability of reciprocating seals.

Keywords

• D-vine copula
• dependence analysis
• reciprocating seal
• reliability estimation