Strengthening North Pacific Influences on United States Temperature Variability

Abstract

Abstract Changes in the frequency of occurrence of atmospheric circulation patterns under a changing climate system has important implications for regional climate variability. While many studies have focused on understanding the trends in the atmospheric pattern amplitudes and probabilities of occurrence, little attention has been given to how the linkages between climate variables and the large-scale patterns have been changing. Here we first document the strengthening relationship between an important North Pacific teleconnection - the East Pacific/North Pacific (EP/NP) pattern – and United States (US) temperature variability since the 1950s. The EP/NP pattern is linked to tropical convection, and consistently the coherence between US temperature anomalies and tropical convection anomalies has also been increasing during the same time period. This upward trend in convection-temperature alignment is most notable during autumn and winter and is absent during the summer. The relationship strengths and trends further suggest that the EP/NP pattern should be incorporated into monthly and seasonal outlooks that are of broad importance to agriculture, industry, and fisheries.