The strategic deterrence measures of the Russian Federation: Terminology, definitions and some aspects of implementation in the Ukraine conflict in 2022

Abstract

The paper analyses the theory and doctrine of strategic deterrence of the Russian Federation and compares them with measures of their implementation in the conflict in Ukraine during 2022. Strategic deterrence is defined as a holistic approach that integrates non-military and military measures to shape the adversary's decision-making in all phases of conflict. From the point of view of military theory, it does not represent a crude force strategy, but coercion aimed at manipulating the perception of the opponent and influencing their strategic behaviour. The analysis of Russian theoretical and doctrinal positions indicates that the role of nonmilitary measures in achieving strategic goals has increased, and in some cases has surpassed the power of weapons in terms of their effectiveness. On the other hand, although the current Russian concept of deterrence may appear to be of a too non-military character, it leans, to some extent, towards military or violent measures. This is a consequence of the existence of dualism in the Russian theory of strategic deterrence, where the current military leadership of the Russian Armed Forces, which attaches crucial importance to military kinetic measures, especially in the phase of an armed conflict, is a stronger current. The implementation of strategic deterrence measures in the conflict in Ukraine, during 2022, confirms the hypothesis of the currently greater correctness of the direction in Russian military theory, which in strategic deterrence attaches greater importance to the implementation of military kinetic measures.

Keywords

• strategic deterrence
• coercion and intimidation
• military and non-military measures
• effectiveness