Probable Forecasting of Epidemic COVID-19 in Using COCUDE Model

Abstract

INTRODUCTION: The world has been struck due to the dangerous human threat called Corona Virus Disease 2019. This research work proposes a methodology to encounter the future infection rate, curing rate, and decease rate. OBJECTIVES: This uses the artificial intelligence algorithm to design and develop the proposed confirmed, cured, deceased (COCUDE) model. METHODS: A nonlinear auto-regressive model has been developed with several iterations to design the proposed COCUDE model. The Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), and Correlated Akaike Information criterion (AICc) metrics are analyzed to check the stationary and quality for the proposed COCUDE model. RESULTS: The prediction results are evaluated by the performance error metrics such as mean square error (MSE) and root mean square error (RMSE), in which the errors are lower for the proposed model. Thus, the prediction results indicate the proposed COCUDE model might accurately predict future COVID-19 infection rates with reduced errors. CONCLUSION: It might support the corresponding authorities to take precautious action on the required necessities for the medical and clinical infrastructures and equipment.

Keywords

• covid-19
• future prediction
• infection rate
• cocude model
• decease rate