Risk prediction method for operational planning situation analysis under uncertain conditions

Abstract

Aiming at the problem of uncertainty and complexity of battlefield situation, which leads to the poor accuracy of risk prediction in the process of research and judgment, it is proposed to build a situation-risk model and construct the risk possibility distribution in order to realize the accurate prediction of risk. Firstly, the risk prediction index system is established from the enemy situation, our situation and the battlefield environment situation research and judgment content; secondly, the role of situation information on the risk is analyzed, and the risk model such as exponential, Z-type, tangent and so on is constructed and the risk value interval is calculated; then, based on the fuzzy function constructing method in the possibility theory, and relying on the weighting difference and uncertainty measurement, the risk possibility distribution is constructed within the risk value interval. Finally, an example of a defense mission is used to verify the feasibility and reasonableness of the proposed method by combining the expert system and cloud modeling methods in an experiment. The results show that the proposed method can fully take into account the uncertainty of situational information in risk prediction, which provides an important basis for subsequent planning decision-making.

Keywords

• operational planning|uncertainty|situation analysis and judgment|probability distribution|risk prediction