Combining Groundwater Flow Modeling and Local Estimates of Extreme Groundwater Levels to Predict the Groundwater Surface with a Return Period of 100 Years

Abstract

Knowledge about extreme groundwater levels is needed to avoid structural or environmental damage by groundwater flooding. Typically, distributions of extreme groundwater levels are generated by interpolation between results derived from local extreme value analysis at groundwater observation wells. As an alternative methodology, we propose to apply the Gumbel distribution to groundwater level time series, which are computed by a groundwater flow model. In the approach, model-based and observation-based extreme groundwater values are compared at every observation well using the model simulation period and the longest available observation period to calculate correction values that are regionalized over the model area. We demonstrate the applicability of the approach at the Südliches Wiener Becken (SWB) aquifer south of Vienna, where a groundwater flow model between 1993 to 2017 is available to compute the distribution of the groundwater levels with a hundred year return period (GLsWHYRP). We could show that the resulting GLsWHYRP are generally increased in regions of groundwater recharge and decreased in regions of groundwater discharge. The developed approach can also be used to assess the impact of changing boundary conditions on groundwater level and extreme highs and lows based on corresponding model scenarios.

Keywords

• statistical extreme value analysis
• groundwater levels with 100 year return period
• regional groundwater model
• Gumbel distribution