Analysis of the Shortage of Pediatrician Workforce in Jiangsu from the Integrated Perspective of Supply and Demand

Abstract

Background Based on the particularity of children and the adjustment of birth policy in recent years, the development of pediatrician team is becoming more and more important. However, most of the current studies on the shortage of pediatricians are qualitative, lacking of quantitative researches. Objective To establish a multi-perspective demand forecasting model, comprehensively analyze the shortage of pediatricians in Jiangsu, and provide reference for promoting the development of children's health during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period in Jiangsu Province and accelerating the construction of pediatrician team in the new era. Methods According to the relevant indicators of pediatric medical services in Jiangsu Province in 2018 obtained from "2018 Jiangsu Provincial Health Service Survey and Analysis Report", and the basic data of pediatrics in each city of Jiangsu Province was obtained from "2019 Jiangsu Provincial Statistical Yearbook" and the database of the Jiangsu Provincial Health Statistics Information Center. Using SPSS 24.0 analysis software, a multi-perspective demand forecasting model was developed from the perspectives of supply and demand, and a comprehensive analysis of the number of pediatrician shortage in Jiangsu Province was performed. Results The proportion of female physicians in the pediatrician team in Jiangsu is relatively high. The young and middle pediatricians occupy a leading position. The academic backgrounds of the pediatricians are mainly undergraduate. The professional title structure is much reasonable. Most of pediatricians have been working for over 20 years. Combined with the basic situation of the pediatrician team in Jiangsu and the perspective of supply and demand, the shortage number of pediatricians in Jiangsu Province was 18 300 and the average shortage number of physicians in 13 cities was 1 500. Conclusion There is an overdemand of resources for pediatric care and a high workload for physicians with an imbalance in the gender and title structure of the workforce; the special practice environment leads to increased practice risk. It is necessary to strengthen the personnel training and introduction policies, consolidate the professional foundation of personnel, and explore a new management model of "Internet + medical consortium".

Keywords

• children|pediatricians|supply and demand|short supply talents|predictive model|jiangsu