Modelling the Price Forecast for Construction Steel: A Case Study in EPC Company

Abstract

The EPC (Engineering Procurement Construction) industry is one of the most dynamic industries. The problems faced are related to market conditions that often change, short construction periods, and fluctuations in material prices that are difficult to predict. This dynamic requires an appropriate forecasting model, which can predict the pattern of material price movements and anticipate the occurrence of fluctuations in the future. This research aims to get the best price during the project tender process. This study model the forecasting of construction iron prices in the future by considering the historical pattern of construction iron price data, the value of foreign exchange rates, and the price of billets as raw materials for construction iron. The forecasting procedure used is nonparametric, which involves several statistical tests such as cross-correlation, linearity, and error assessment. The results of this study can be a firm reference for the price value of construction iron, which makes it easier for management to determine an accurate and competitive project value.

Keywords

• construction steep
• epc company
• forecasting
• price