Historical drought and its trend in South Asia: Spatial and temporal analysis 2000-2020

Abstract

Every year, South Asian countries suffer from declining agricultural outputs due to climate extremes such as floods and droughts. Recurrent droughts have depressed rural economies and enhanced widespread hunger and human migration to South Asian cities (Miyan, 2015). Due to climatic changes, the region is projected to experience rising temperatures and more frequent extreme weather events in the long term (Trenberth et al., 2014). Accurate predictions of drought, its impact, and early detection facilities are not present in most South Asian countries due to a lack of sufficient hydro-meteorological datasets, poor access to satellite products, and shortages of well-trained staff. This study seeks to address these deficiencies scientifically by analysing historical drought conditions on a regional scale using open-access satellite products. The Drought Severity Index (DSI) has been employed to assess meteorological droughts from 2000 to 2020 and to prepare drought severity maps for the South Asian region. Results from DSI were further compared with the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) in Nepal and Bangladesh. The results identified pre-monsoon months as the driest period in South Asian countries experiencing severe to moderate drought.