Effects of decadal climate variability on spatiotemporal distribution of Indo-Pacific yellowfin tuna population

Abstract

Abstract Spatial variations in tuna population and abundance are strongly linked to large-scale climate fluctuations, such as the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). However, the mechanisms underlying the association of climate indices with yellowfin tuna (YFT) abundance and habitat preference remain unclear. We analysed long-term longline fishery data for YFT and oceanic climate variability index data for 1971–2018. The standardized catch per unit effort (CPUE) of Indo-Pacific Ocean YFT was higher during negative AMO and positive PDO phases. In tropical Pacific Ocean, the trend of YFT habitat preference exhibited seesaw patterns because of the distinct environmental factors influenced by the PDO phase. The PDO changed the environmental parameters throughout the tropical Indian Ocean such that the habitat preference of YFT remained consistent throughout. However, the variations in habitat suitability did not correspond to the distribution or standardized CPUE of YFT throughout the Pacific Ocean during AMO events. Moreover, the changes in habitat suitability had a positive periodicity of 8–16 years with AMO in the Indian Ocean, but revealed opposite trends with the distribution or standardized CPUE of YFT. Our results provide sufficient information to distinguish the variations between PDO phase changing and YFT standardized CPUE/ habitat preference. Furthermore, the AMO phase shift period 60–100 years longer than that of the PDO (20–30 years), and models employing time series of fishery and environmental data must be extended the time period of our study to make the AMO match the fishery data more complete.