The Application of the HoRAM Method for a Comprehensive Sustainability Assessment of Emerging Solar Technologies: a Case Study on Perovskite and Organic Solar Cells

Abstract

Despite the foreseen technical performance improvements, the deployment of Perovskite Solar Cells (PSCs) and organic Solar Cells (OSCs) faces uncertainties due to their relatively low maturity. Risks span from Health, Safety, and Environment (HSE) impacts to material and investment costs, performance, as well as production process unreliability. Nevertheless, assessment of potential risks at the early stages of technological development is considered necessary to ensure the responsible and sustainable deployment of these technologies. Current methodologies such as Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), cost analyses, and technical feasibility studies provide valuable insights into specific aspects but fall short in addressing the complexity and uncertainty inherent in emerging technologies. The primary focus of this study is to introduce an innovative methodology, Holistic Risk Analysis and Modelling (HoRAM), a logic-based decision engineering tool that employs artificial intelligence, specifically cognitive computing, to comprehensively assess risks associated with PSCs and OSCs. The outcomes of this research are anticipated to provide decision-makers with critical insights at various stages of research and scaling up of PSCs and OSCs. By offering a methodology that goes beyond conventional assessment methods, HoRAM contributes to informed decision-making, reducing the reliance on extensive data sets and facilitating the responsible advancement of emerging solar technologies in the market. The results of our study highlight key differences in the cost structure of the two technologies. Although the expected costs for PSCs and OSCs are similar, at 148€ and 134€ respectively, the main cost drivers differ significantly. For OSCs, material costs are the predominant factor, whereas for PSCs, costs are more evenly distributed across CAPEX, OPEX, process unreliability and raw materials. These findings highlight the importance of ad hoc mitigation strategies for effectively reducing overall risk and, consequently, cost.