Predictive Modeling and Control Strategies for the Transmission of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus

Abstract

The Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) is a highly infectious respiratory illness that poses a significant threat to public health. Understanding the transmission dynamics of MERS-CoV is crucial for effective control and prevention strategies. In this study, we develop a precise mathematical model to capture the transmission dynamics of MERS-CoV. We incorporate some novel parameters related to birth and mortality rates, which are essential factors influencing the spread of the virus. We obtain epidemiological data from reliable sources to estimate the model parameters. We compute its basic reproduction number (R0). Stability theory is employed to analyze the local and global properties of the model, providing insights into the system’s equilibrium states and their stability. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to identify the most critical parameter affecting the transmission dynamics. Our findings revealed important insights into the transmission dynamics of MERS-CoV. The stability analysis demonstrated the existence of stable equilibrium points, indicating the long-term behavior of the epidemic. Through the evaluation of optimal control strategies, we identify effective intervention measures to mitigate the spread of MERS-CoV. Our simulations demonstrate the impact of time-dependent control variables, such as supportive care and treatment, in reducing the number of infected individuals and controlling the epidemic. The model can serve as a valuable tool for public health authorities in designing effective control and prevention strategies, ultimately reducing the burden of MERS-CoV on global health.

Keywords

• MERS-CoV model
• basic reproductive number
• analysis of stability
• equilibria points
• optimality control
• numerical analysis