Zhongguo youzhi (Dec 2023)
全球食用油料贸易格局演变及其对中国的启示Evolution of global edible oilseed trade pattern and its enlightenment to China
Abstract
为保障我国粮油安全以及促进我国食用油料进出口贸易发展，基于2000—2020年的全球食用油料贸易数据，采用社会网络分析方法对全球食用油料贸易网络结构特征及其演变进行分析，并对我国食用油料贸易网络特征进行进一步探究，并提出相关的政策建议。结果表明：近20年来，全球参与食用油料贸易各国家间的关系趋于紧密，贸易主体多元化发展，贸易效率有所提升；全球食用油料贸易网络中的核心国家主要包括美国、中国、德国、荷兰等，进出口贸易国家间的结构不对称，主要参与国存在一定变化，但核心国家仍对贸易网络具备一定控制能力；中国是食用油料贸易的枢纽国家，进出口贸易伙伴国众多，参与贸易的食用油料品种较为丰富，但进口来源国较为集中，作为进口大国易受到新冠疫情、国际政治局势变动等外部因素的影响，因此中国在食用油料贸易方面正面临着众多挑战。我国应提高国内食用油料的生产水平，积极拓展国内、国际两个市场，规避食用油料国际贸易中存在的风险的同时，促进我国食用油料进口来源市场多元化与进口品种多样化，从而保障我国粮油安全。In order to ensure the safety of China′s grain and oil and promote the development of China′s edible oilseed import and export trade, based on the data of global edible oilseed trade from 2000 to 2020, the structural characteristics and evolution of global edible oilseed trade network were analyzed by social network analysis method, and the characteristics of China′s edible oilseed trade network were further explored. In addition, relevant policy suggestions were put forward. The results showed that in the past two decades, the relationship among countries involved in edible oilseed trade in the world had become closer, the trade entities had diversified and the trade efficiency had improved; the core countries in the global edible oilseed trade network mainly included the United States, China, Germany, the Netherlands and other countries. The structure of import and export trade countries was asymmetric, and there were some changes in the main participating countries, but the core countries still had certain control ability over the trade network. China was the hub country of edible oilseed trade, with many import and export trading partner countries, and the varieties of edible oilseed involved in the trade were abundant, but the import source market was concentrated. As a big importer, China was vulnerable to external factors such as the COVID-19 epidemic and changes in international political situation. Therefore, China was facing many challenges in the trade of edible oilseed. China should improve the domestic production level of edible oilseed, actively expand the domestic and international markets, avoid the risks in the international trade of edible oilseed, and at the same time, promote the diversification of import source markets and varieties of edible oilseed in China, so as to ensure China′s grain and oil security.
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