Assessing the Effects of Environmental Smog Warning Policy on Preventing Traffic Deaths Based on RDD Strategy

Abstract

This paper assessed the impacts of environmental smog early-warning signals on road traffic deaths. For an accurate assessment, we used the daily traffic death data from 2016 to 2020 in 295 Chinese cities and constructed a rigorous Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) strategy to identify the causality and adopted the high-dimensional fixed-effect method to deal with the interference of meteorological factors. The results indicate that light smog and moderate smog early warnings decreased road fatalities by about 3.6% and 4.3%, respectively. Surprisingly, the heavy smog early-warning signal had no significant effect, possibly because of the self-consciousness mechanism instead of the early-warning signal mechanism. Further heterogeneity analysis showed that women drivers, highly-educated drivers, older drivers (over 60 years), two-wheeled vehicle drivers, and drivers on country roads and freeways are more sensitive to smog early-warning signals.

Keywords

• smog early-warning
• environmental policy
• road traffic deaths
• Regression Discontinuity Design