Beginning with a Head Start. The Characteristics of the Winning Presidential Candidacy in Latin America (1993-2017)

Abstract

Presidential candidacies make part of the political elite, however the main studies have generally addressed this topic under the frame of electoral behavior, and not from the elite theory. This article aims to identify, through logistic regression analyses, which sociodemographic characteristics are more advantageous to win an election. It does not intend to explain the vote, but to define tendencies of electoral victory or defeat based on the profile of the candidacies; this is a study on political elites, not on electoral behavior. For this purpose, we built a database of 388 Latin American presidential candidacies from 1993 to 2017. Once we have identified the most relevant aspects that the literature has pointed out, we present a methodological design that incorporates, in addition to individual factors, working as control variables, structural factors too, such as parties and party systems, officialism-opposition, and the level of socio-economic development. Results show that having relatives in political positions, links to large companies, or occupying high positions of political responsibility, significantly increase the probability of winning the presidential elections. Finally, the conclusions and the agenda for future research are presented

Keywords

• élite política
• candidatura presidencial
• características sociodemográficas
• elección presidencial
• américa latina.