Risk assessment of geological disasters in Nanjing, Jiangsu Province

Abstract

Geological disaster risk assessment serves as a crucial foundation for the risk management and control of such risks, playing a significant role in the scientific prevention and control of geological disasters. This study focuses on Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, and employs historical disaster point density and other influencing factors to evaluate the susceptibility of geological disasters. Rainfall is utilized as the triggering factor for conducting probability assessments. By considering the comprehensive vulnerability of the affected areas, the study analyzes and defines the high, medium, and low-risk zones for geological disasters. The findings reveal that high-risk zone primarily concentrates on populated piedmont slopes, including Laoshan, Mufu Mountain, Zijin Mountain, Qixia Mountain, and Qinglong Mountain, covering an area of 51.3 km2, accounting for 0.8% of the total area. Medium-risk zone is mainly located in areas with relatively concentrated populations in low mountains and hills, covering an area of 371.9 km2, accounting for 5.6% of the total area. Low-risk zone is more widely distributed, occupying the remaining low mountains and hills, covering an area of 1740.1 km2, accounting for 26.4% of the total area. The research results can effectively support disaster prevention, mitigation efforts related to geological disasters, and contribute to land space planning.

Keywords

• geological hazard
• susceptibility
• probability
• vulnerability
• risk assessment
• nanjing