Assessing Landslide Drivers in Social–Ecological–Technological Systems: The Case of Metropolitan Region of São Paulo, Brazil

Abstract

Urban landslides are increasing globally, mainly caused by human-induced changes in hillsides. Most of these events have caused low-intensity damages to housing and infrastructure. A total of 2038 locations of landslides in the hydrological year of 2010 were used to model landslides’ occurrence in the metropolitan region of São Paulo—Brazil—using a social–ecological–technological system’s approach, which enables the analysis of urban landslides as the outcome of dynamic socioeconomic and infrastructural conditions alongside climatic and geophysical conditions. A multi-step model approach was used to select the best set of variables related to landslides’ occurrence and assess their importance. The value of AUC of the model was 0.9087, denoting the high level of discrimination achieved. Antecedent rainfall played the most important role, followed by terrain slope. Informal settlements, associated with poor constructive practices and a lack of municipal inspection on civil works and buildings, as well as the number of households, which stands for built density and greater alteration in hillsides, yielded a slightly lower contribution. Other variables showed a marginal contribution. These results reinforce the role of local ordinances aimed at restricting occupation in steeper slopes and public policies to promote adequate housing and constructive practices. Future climate projections to MRSP point to the increase in intense rainfall days, making disasters caused by landslides a major source of risk.

Keywords

• urban systems
• urban landslides
• urban vulnerability