Prediction of carbon peak in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region based on STIRPAT model

Abstract

In order to solve the problem of early peak of carbon emissions the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region，taking Hebei Province as an example, the realization path of peaking carbon emissions in the region was studied, and the future carbon emissions in the region were predicted and analyzed, the STIRPAT carbon emission prediction expansion model based on carbon emission data in Hebei Province from 2004 to 2021 was established. Six scenarios were set up to simulate the carbon emission trend from 2022 to 2040 under different scenarios by comprehensively considering the change rates of six data such as population size, per capita GDP, urbanization rate, industrial structure, energy intensity and energy structure, and to predict the carbon peak time and carbon emission peak of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei. The results show that: Except for the clean development scenario, which peaks in 2030, the other scenarios of Beijing will reach the peak in 2035. Except for the economic slowdown scenario, which is to peak in 2030, the remaining scenarios of Tianjin were to achieve carbon peak in 2035. In Hebei Province, except for the baseline scenario, which is to reach the peak in 2035, the remaining scenarios are to reach the peak in 2030.The proposed carbon emission forecast expansion model, considering multi-scenario analysis, puts forward relevant suggestions on how to control and reduce carbon emissions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, and provides certain reference for the development of low-carbon economy in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region.

Keywords

• statistical prediction theory; carbon peak; stirpat model; ridge regression; scenario simulation; path selection