Assessing the influence of landscape conservation and protected areas on social wellbeing using random forest machine learning

Abstract

Abstract The urgency of interconnected social-ecological dilemmas such as rapid biodiversity loss, habitat loss and fragmentation, and the escalating climate crisis have led to increased calls for the protection of ecologically important areas of the planet. Protected areas (PA) are considered critical to address these dilemmas although growing divides in wellbeing can exacerbate conflict around PAs and undermine effectiveness. We investigate the influence of proximity to PAs on wellbeing outcomes. We develop a novel multi-dimensional index of wellbeing for households and across Africa and use Random Forest Machine Learning techniques to assess the importance score of households’ proximity to protected areas on their wellbeing outcomes compared with the importance scores of an array of other social, environmental, and local and national governance factors. This study makes important contributions to the conservation literature, first by expanding the ways in which wellbeing is measured and operationalized, and second, by providing additional empirical support for recent evidence that proximity to PAs is an influential factor affecting observed wellbeing outcomes, albeit likely through different pathways than the current literature suggests.