Ecological Indicators (Oct 2023)
Evaluation of water resources carrying capacity in Tarim River Basin under game theory combination weights
Abstract
As a basic resource, water resources are the controlling element of ecological environment construction and are vital to social development and human survival. Water resources carrying capacity is an important criterion to measure the harmony of ecology, society, economy and resources in the region. The increasing contradiction of water resources in the Tarim River Basin of Xinjiang has restricted the rigid constraints of water resources in various fields of economic and social development. In order to provide a better basis for water resources management in the Tarim River Basin. This paper selects 21 indicators and constructs an evaluation system containing four subsystems: water resources, society, economy, and ecology. The objective function is constructed through the idea of game assembly, and the comprehensive weights obtained by combining the entropy weighting method and CRITIC method are assigned. Finally, we substitute into TOPSIS model to calculate the proximity to get the water resources carrying capacity index. The results show that the average value of the water resources carrying capacity index of the five prefectures of the Tarim River Basin in Xinjiang from 2010 to 2019 is 0.34, and according to the trend of change with the year, the carrying capacity of the five prefectures fluctuates at a low level from 2011 to 2016. Except for Bazhou, where the water resources carrying capacity dropped sharply due to the transfer of water to the outside, the other four prefectures showed an overall upward trend after 2016. This indicates that the water resources carrying capacity of the Tarim River basin, which was on the verge of overload in the past, is gradually becoming better after the rectification of relevant measures such as counterpart assistance to Xinjiang and efficient water conservation. And there is still more room for development in the future.
