Improving Influenza Epidemiological Models under Caputo Fractional-Order Calculus

Abstract

The Caputo fractional-order differential operator is used in epidemiological models, but its accuracy benefits are typically ignored. We validated the suggested fractional epidemiological seasonal influenza model of the SVEIHR type to demonstrate the Caputo operator’s relevance. We analysed the model using fractional calculus, revealing its basic properties and enhancing our understanding of disease progression. Furthermore, the positivity, bounds, and symmetry of the numerical scheme were examined. Adjusting the Caputo fractional-order parameter α = 0.99 provided the best fit for epidemiological data on infection rates. We compared the suggested model with the Caputo fractional-order system and the integer-order equivalent model. The fractional-order model had lower absolute mean errors, suggesting that it could better represent sickness transmission and development. The results underline the relevance of using the Caputo fractional-order operator to improve epidemiological models’ precision and forecasting. Integrating fractional calculus within the framework of symmetry helps us build more reliable models that improve public health interventions and policies.

Keywords

• seasonal influenza model
• seasonal influenza-like illness
• influenza in Saudi Arabia
• influenza vaccination
• SVEIHR model