Power spectral density and similarity analysis of COVID-19 mortality waves across countries

Abstract

Background: During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) established a comprehensive database detailing daily mortality rates across countries. This dataset revealed fluctuating global mortality trends attributable to COVID-19; however, the specific differences and similarities in mortality patterns between countries remain insufficiently explored. Consequently, this study employs Fourier and similarity analyses to examine these patterns within the frequency domain, thereby offering novel insights into the dynamics of COVID-19 mortality waves across different nations. Methods: We employed the Fast Fourier transform to calculate the power spectral density (PSD) of COVID-19 mortality waves in 199 countries from January 22, 2020, to March 9, 2023. Moreover, we performed a cosine similarity analysis of these PSD patterns among all the countries. Results: We identified two dominant peaks in the grand averaged PSD: one at a frequency of 1.15 waves per year (i.e., one wave every 10.4 months) and another at 2.7 waves per year (i.e., one wave every 4.4 months). We also found a cosine similarity index distribution with a skewness of −0.54 and a global median of cosine similarity index of 0.84, thus revealing a remarkable similarity in the dominant peaks of the COVID-19 mortality waves. Conclusion: These findings could be helpful for planetary health if a future pandemic of a similar scale occurs so that effective confinement measures or other actions could be planned during these two identified periods.