Validation of dengue infection severity score

Abstract

Surangrat Pongpan,1,2 Jayanton Patumanond,3 Apichart Wisitwong,4 Chamaiporn Tawichasri,5 Sirianong Namwongprom1,6 1Clinical Epidemiology Program, Faculty of Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand; 2Department of Occupational Medicine, Phrae Hospital, Phrae, Thailand; 3Clinical Epidemiology Program, Faculty of Medicine, Thammasat University, Bangkok, Thailand; 4Department of Social Medicine, Sawanpracharak Hospital, Nakorn Sawan, Thailand; 5Clinical Epidemiology Society at Chiang Mai, Chiang Mai, Thailand; 6Department of Radiology, Faculty of Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand Objective: To validate a simple scoring system to classify dengue viral infection severity to patients in different settings. Methods: The developed scoring system derived from 777 patients from three tertiary-care hospitals was applied to 400 patients in the validation data obtained from another three tertiary-care hospitals. Percentage of correct classification, underestimation, and overestimation was compared. The score discriminative performance in the two datasets was compared by analysis of areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves. Results: Patients in the validation data were different from those in the development data in some aspects. In the validation data, classifying patients into three severity levels (dengue fever, dengue hemorrhagic fever, and dengue shock syndrome) yielded 50.8% correct prediction (versus 60.7% in the development data), with clinically acceptable underestimation (18.6% versus 25.7%) and overestimation (30.8% versus 13.5%). Despite the difference in predictive performances between the validation and the development data, the overall prediction of the scoring system is considered high. Conclusion: The developed severity score may be applied to classify patients with dengue viral infection into three severity levels with clinically acceptable under- or overestimation. Its impact when used in routine clinical practice should be a topic for further study. Keywords: dengue hemorrhagic fever, dengue shock syndrome, validation, clinical prediction rule