The Description and Prediction of Incidence, Prevalence, Mortality, Disability-Adjusted Life Years Cases, and Corresponding Age-Standardized Rates for Global Diabetes

Abstract

Abstract Objective Diabetes is a life-long disease that poses a serious threat to safety and health. We aimed to assess the disease burden attributable to diabetes globally and by different subgroups, and to predict future disease burden using statistical models. Methods This study was divided into three stages. Firstly, we evaluated the disease burden attributable to diabetes globally and by different subgroups in 2019. Second, we assessed the trends from 1990 to 2019. We estimated the annual percentage change of disease burden by applying a linear regression model. Finally, the age-period-cohort model was used to predict the disease burden from 2020 to 2044. Sensitivity analysis was performed with time-series models. Results In 2019, the number of incidence cases of diabetes globally was 22239396 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 20599519–24058945). The number of prevalence cases was 459875371 (95% UI 423474244–497980624) the number of deaths cases was 1551170 (95% UI 1445555–1650675) and the number of disability-adjusted life years cases was 70880155 (95% UI 59707574–84174005). The disease burden was lower in females than males and increased with age. The disease burden associated with type 2 diabetes mellitus was greater than that with type 1; the burden also varied across different socio-demographic index regions and different countries. The global disease burden of diabetes increased significantly over the past 30 years and will continue to increase in the future. Conclusion The disease burden of diabetes contributed significantly to the global disease burden. It is important to improve treatment and diagnosis to halt the growth in disease burden.

Keywords

• Global diabetes burden
• Evaluation
• Prediction