Development of model predictive controls for flood control and power generation of reservoir cascade in Mahaweli basin, Sri Lanka to mitigate energy and economic crisis provoked by the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

Mahaweli basin is the largest river basin in Sri Lanka which receives high-intensity rainfall reasoned to frequent flooding. Mahaweli River passes through Victoria, Randenigala and Rantambe reservoirs which cater for drinking, irrigation, hydropower, and environmental water requirements. These reservoirs contribute to 63 % of the hydropower production of the country. The development of flood control methods for this cascade will mitigate flash floods and lower the risk of reservoir spill during peak hours. Therefore, a system dynamic model is developed using VENSIM software to analyse the complex correlation between flood storage and power flow considering short-term weather prediction. Model predictive controls are applied to analyse the system to enhance power generation through storage optimization. This brings direct economic benefits and be a sustainable solution for the energy crisis provoked by the economic loss that occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic.