COVID-19 cumulative incidence, intensive care, and mortality in Italian regions compared to selected European countries

Abstract

Background: The high contagiousness and rapid spreading of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused a high number of critical to severe life-threatening cases, which required urgent hospital admission and treatment in intensive care units (ICUs). The pandemic has been a tough test for all European national health systems and their capability to provide an adequate reaction. Methods: The present work aims to reveal correlations between parameters such as COVID-19 incidence, ICU bed occupancy, ICU excess area, and mortality in Italian regions. Public data for the period of March 1 to July 16, 2020, were analyzed using several mathematical and statistical methods. Results: The analysis defined two separate groups of Italian regions. The examined variables considered within these groups were interlinked and dependent on each other. The regions of the two groups shared the same kind of fitted model (linear) explaining mortality as a function of cumulative incidence, but with higher value of the constant in one group, so characterized by a high intrinsic “strength” of the pandemic, certainly playing a major role in the generation of a large number of severe and life-threatening cases. These results are confirmed at European level. Other factors may condition mortality and be linked to incidence, such as ICU saturation and excess. Conclusions: These quantitative results could be a very helpful tool to set up preventive measures and optimize biomedical interventions before the pandemic, in its recurrent waves, could overcome the reaction capacity of any public health system.

Keywords

• COVID-19
• Mortality
• Cumulative incidence
• Intensive care capability
• Mathematical analysis